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The Scars of El Fasher and the Mirage of a Sudan Truce

The Scars of El Fasher and the Mirage of a Sudan Truce

Friday, 07 November 2025 23:03

Summary

The civil war in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has escalated into the world's largest humanitarian crisis, marked by widespread atrocities, particularly by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) following their capture of El Fasher in October 2025. The RSF's recent agreement to a US-backed humanitarian ceasefire offers a fragile hope for aid delivery, but the Sudanese military's conditional response and the history of failed truces suggest the violence and famine will continue to plague the nation.

The Descent into Civil War

The conflict tearing Sudan apart began in April 2023, pitting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)7,10,12,19. The two forces, once allies who together crushed a pro-democracy movement, are now led by sworn enemies: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, of the RSF9,10. The RSF traces its origins to the Janjaweed, Arab militias accused of committing genocide in Darfur during the early 2000s7,9,10. The current war is fuelled by a rivalry over political power and control of Sudan’s strategic resources, including gold9,10. After more than two years of fighting, the conflict has resulted in what the United Nations describes as the world’s largest humanitarian crisis7,10,11,12,21. Repeated regional and international mediation attempts have consistently failed to halt the violence19. The RSF now controls Darfur and most of Kordofan, while the SAF maintains control over the east and recaptured the capital, Khartoum, in March 20259,16.

The Horror of El Fasher

The city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, became the focal point of the war’s most recent and horrific chapter9,17. After an 18-month siege, the RSF seized control of the city from the SAF on 26 October 20256,7,9,17. The fall of the city, the army’s last major stronghold in western Darfur, was immediately followed by reports of large-scale atrocities against civilians7,9,16,17. Witnesses and aid groups reported that RSF fighters went house-to-house, killing civilians and committing sexual assaults4. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is actively collecting evidence of alleged mass killings and rapes in Darfur, warning that the atrocities could constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity4,6. The United States has previously accused the RSF of committing genocide10,16. One particularly devastating incident involved the killing of nearly 500 people at the Saudi Maternity Hospital, the only partially functioning health facility that had survived repeated shelling9. The activist group Avaaz estimates that tens of thousands of civilians may have been slaughtered in the city4. Satellite images have emerged showing the RSF appeared to be conducting systematic body disposal, with mass graves being dug in trenches and pits4. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated that at least 62,000 people fled the El Fasher area between 26 and 29 October 20259. The UN Special Adviser on genocide prevention raised concerns over the widespread allegations of war crimes in El Fasher in November 202517.

A Catastrophe of Hunger and Displacement

The war has created a humanitarian catastrophe of staggering proportions, with over 30 million people, approximately 65% of the population, projected to need humanitarian support in 20259,13,21. More than 15 million people have fled their homes since the conflict began, making Sudan the world’s largest displacement crisis19,21. The 18-month blockade of El Fasher had already brought famine and devastation to the city before its fall9,21. Famine is expected to persist in El Fasher and Kadugli towns through January 202621. The healthcare system is collapsing, with 75% of health facilities in conflict zones out of action21. The conflict is also characterised by widespread sexual violence against women and girls, with new testimonies emerging from those fleeing El Fasher11,19. The international response has been criticised for its inadequacy19. The United Kingdom, which serves as the 'penholder' for Sudan at the UN Security Council, chose the 'least ambitious' plan to protect Sudanese civilians due to aid cuts, despite warnings of possible genocide11. US aid cuts earlier in 2025 reportedly led to the closure of 80% of emergency food kitchens13. The UK pledged an additional £5 million in humanitarian aid in November 2025, with £2 million directed toward support for victims of sexual violence19.

The Fragile Promise of a Truce

In the wake of the El Fasher massacres, a new diplomatic push led by the United States and a group of mediators known as the 'Quad'—comprising the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—resulted in a proposed humanitarian ceasefire4,9,12,16. On 6 November 2025, the RSF announced its agreement to the US-led proposal for a humanitarian truce4,5,8,12,14,17. The US-led plan outlines a three-month humanitarian truce, intended to be followed by a nine-month political process5. However, the Sudanese military-aligned government did not immediately comment on the RSF’s announcement and has set conditions for any agreement14,16. The SAF insists it will only agree to the proposal if the RSF disarms and withdraws from the territory it captured in Darfur8,14,15,18. The fragility of the truce was immediately apparent, as explosions were heard near the army-controlled capital, Khartoum, on 7 November 2025, the day after the RSF’s statement8,16. The RSF’s principal backer, the UAE, has faced criticism for allegedly supplying weapons to the paramilitary group, a claim the UAE denies despite evidence presented in UN reports4,10. Egypt is accused of supporting the Sudanese military10. The UN envoy called the proposed truce a 'rare chance' to halt the fighting and protect civilians, but the history of failed ceasefires in the two-and-a-half-year war tempers any optimism5,18.

Conclusion

The war in Sudan has reached a critical juncture, where the military success of the RSF in Darfur has been inextricably linked to a wave of alleged atrocity crimes, pushing the country into a state of profound humanitarian collapse4,9,17. The recent, conditional agreement by the RSF to a US-backed humanitarian truce represents a moment of diplomatic pressure, yet it is one built on a foundation of deep mistrust and a long history of broken promises5,14,16. For the millions of displaced and starving civilians, particularly those trapped in famine-stricken areas like El Fasher, the immediate priority is the unimpeded flow of aid, which the truce is intended to facilitate14,21. However, the Sudanese military’s demand for RSF withdrawal and disarmament before a full agreement suggests that the path to a lasting peace, or even a sustained pause in the fighting, remains distant and fraught with the potential for renewed, devastating conflict14,18. The international community, having been criticised for its neglect and aid cuts, faces a moral imperative to ensure that the diplomatic efforts translate into tangible protection and relief for the Sudanese people11,19.

References

  1. Sudanese militia group accused of war crimes agrees to a ceasefire | Sudan - The Guardian

    Supports details on the RSF's agreement to the ceasefire, the accusations of war crimes in El Fasher, the ICC's evidence collection, reports of mass graves, and the alleged role of the UAE.

  2. Sudan's paramilitary force agrees to U.S. proposal for humanitarian ceasefire | CBC News

    Provides details on the US-led ceasefire proposal, including the three-month humanitarian truce and nine-month political process, and the history of failed truces.

  3. ICC prosecutor warns Sudan's RSF paramilitary may be committing war crimes in Darfur

    Confirms the ICC is collecting evidence of alleged mass killings and rapes in Darfur and the date of the RSF's seizure of El Fasher.

  4. FACTBOX - Sudan's Rapid Support Forces: From Darfur militias to rival army

    Supports the start date of the war (April 2023), the RSF's origin from Janjaweed militias, and the UN's description of the crisis.

  5. Sudan's RSF Accepts US-Led Ceasefire Amid Crisis - Grand Pinnacle Tribune - Evrim Ağacı

    Confirms the RSF's acceptance date (November 6, 2025), the military's noncommittal stance, and reports of explosions near Khartoum the following day.

  6. The fall of El-Fasher: Sudan's war outpaces truce plan

    Details the siege and fall of El Fasher, the number of displaced people (62,000), the killing of nearly 500 people at the Saudi Maternity Hospital, the rivalry between the generals, and the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance (30 million).

  7. The role outside powers are playing in Sudan's continued, brutal war | PBS News

    Supports the US accusation of genocide against the RSF, the RSF's origin from Janjaweed, the alleged support from the UAE to the RSF, and the alleged support from Egypt to the SAF.

  8. UK rejected atrocity prevention plans for Sudan despite warning of possible genocide

    Provides details on the UK's role as UN Security Council 'penholder,' the decision to choose the 'least ambitious' civilian protection plan due to aid cuts, and the widespread sexual violence.

  9. Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Agree to Humanitarian Ceasefire - Democracy Now!

    Confirms the RSF's agreement to the US-backed ceasefire and the composition of the Quad mediators (US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE).

  10. Humanitarian situation in Sudan - House of Commons Library

    Supports the figure of 30.4 million people needing humanitarian support in 2025 and the impact of US aid cuts leading to the closure of 80% of emergency food kitchens.

  11. Could a ceasefire bring humanitarian relief to Sudan? | KGOU - Oklahoma's NPR Source

    Confirms the RSF's agreement to the US-brokered ceasefire and the Sudanese military's condition for agreement: RSF disarmament and withdrawal.

  12. Could a ceasefire bring humanitarian relief to Sudan? | Hawai'i Public Radio

    Reinforces the Sudanese military's condition for a ceasefire: RSF disarmament and withdrawal from captured territory.

  13. Sudan's civil war rages despite U.S. peace push, as explosions heard near capital Khartoum

    Confirms the RSF's shift in focus after El Fasher, the explosions near Khartoum on November 7, 2025, and the US-led Quad's role in brokering the truce.

  14. Genocide prevention expert raises alarm over alleged Sudan atrocity crimes - UN News

    Supports the RSF's agreement to the ceasefire, the 500-day siege of El Fasher, and the UN Special Adviser's alarm over alleged atrocity crimes.

  15. UN envoy calls proposed truce 'rare chance' to halt fighting in Sudan, protect civilians

    Confirms the UN envoy's statement on the truce and the SAF's condition for political dialogue, including RSF withdrawal.

  16. UK pledges $6.6M more aid for Sudan, says global cooperation failing - Anadolu Ajansı

    Provides the start date of the conflict (April 15, 2023), the number of displaced people (15 million), the UK's additional aid pledge (£5 million), and the focus on sexual violence victims.

  17. What is Happening in Sudan? | Islamic Relief UK

    Supports the figure of over 30 million people needing aid, the collapse of the healthcare system, the famine forecast for El Fasher and Kadugli through January 2026, and the status as the world's largest displacement crisis.